Provider Talent Scarcity: Bridging the Projected Physician Shortage with Locum Tenens

Physician shortages, recruitment, and retention are pressing concerns for healthcare employers as they strive to maintain adequate staffing levels and ensure continuity of care. With a projected shortage of 86,000 physicians by 2036 across both primary and specialty care, locum tenens have become an indispensable solution to mitigating clinical staffing shortages.

Physician Shortage Deficits in Primary and Specialty Care:

Primary Factors of the Growing Physician Shortage

While there are several factors fueling the growing physician shortages, there are three making the most impact. These include:

A Growing and Aging Population: By 2036, the U.S. population is projected to grow by 8.4%, with the number of individuals aged 65 or older increasing by 34.1%.

• The U.S. population aged 75 or older is expected to increase by 54.7% by 2036.
• Individuals age 65 or older are anticipated to account for 42% of the total demand for healthcare services by 2034.

This demographic shift not only drives up the need for medical services but also strains the supply of physicians.

• 22% of the physician workforce are between 55 and 64 years old.
• 20% of the physician workforce is 65 or older.
• Nearly half of today's physicians are expected to retire within the next decade.

Limited Residency Positions: Despite the 2024 Main Residency Match being the largest in history, with 50,413 registered applicants, 8,910 applicants did not match into residency positions, a 14.5% increase from 2023. Without increased funding for residency programs, the demand for healthcare services will continue to outpace the supply of incoming physicians.

Increasing Burnout Rates: Burnout continues to be a significant factor contributing to the physician shortage.

• In 2024, 49% of overall physicians reported experiencing burnout, with some specialties facing even higher rates.
• At 63%, Emergency Medicine has the highest rate of burnout, topping all other medical specialties.
• 54% of physicians indicated they would be willing to take a pay cut in exchange for a better work-life balance.

Persistent burnout rates present a mounting challenge in healthcare, affecting physician well-being and contributing to workforce shortages as more doctors scale back their hours, leave the field, or retire early.

Five Physician Specialties in Demand

1. Radiology

• In physician shortage projections, radiology falls into the "other specialty" category, which estimates a combined shortage of up to 19,500 physicians.
• 56.4% of diagnostic radiologists are 55 or older, and 26.2% of vascular and interventional radiologists are 55 or older.
• In the 2024 Match, 88% of diagnostic applicants did not match, and 83% of interventional radiology applicants did not match.
• In 2024, 51% of radiologists reported experiencing burnout.
• Radiologist job growth is anticipated to increase by 4% until 2032, resulting in 1,100 radiology job openings projected each year on average.

2. Anesthesiology

• Projections indicate there will be a shortage of up to 6,300 anesthesiologists by 2036.
• 56% of anesthesiologists are over the age of 55.
• An estimated 44% of medical students seeking anesthesiology residency did not match in 2024.
• In 2024, 50% of anesthesiologists reported feeling either burned out or both burned out and depressed.
• Overall employment of anesthesiologists is projected to increase by 2.6% from 2022, with an estimated 1,000 anesthesiologist job openings projected on average each year over the decade.
  

3. Primary Care

• Estimates predict a shortage of between 20,200 and 40,400 primary care physicians.
• Projections indicate that 25.1% of family medicine physicians are aged 55 or older, 16.2% of Internists are 55 or older, and 23.8% of pediatricians are aged 55 or older.
• In the 2024 Match, internal medicine filled 95.3% of positions, family medicine filled 87.8% of positions, and pediatrics overall fill rate was 92%.
• In 2024, 50% of internal medicine physicians reported being burnt out, and 51% of family medicine and pediatric physicians reported being burnt out.
• Internal medicine job growth is projected to increase by 2% from 2022 to 2032. Family medicine job growth is anticipated at 4% until 2032, and pediatrics job growth is expected to grow by 1% until 2032.

4. Gastroenterology

• It is estimated that by 2025, there will be a shortage of up to 1,630 gastroenterologists.
• 50.8% of gastroenterologists are 55 or older.
• In the 2024 Match, 376 of the gastroenterology fellowship applicants did not match.
• 50% of gastroenterologists reported being burnt out in 2024.
• The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics predicts a 3% job growth for physicians until 2032.

5. Psychiatry

• Projections indicate that by 2036, there will be a shortage of 42,130 psychiatrists.
• Nearly 70% of practicing psychiatrists are aged 50 or older.
• In the 2024 Match, 1,823 applicants were matched into psychiatry; however, only a 5% increase in the number of available psychiatry residency spots remains insufficient to meet the growing demand for mental health care.
• 20% of psychiatrists reported burnout has become so severe they may leave the field of medicine entirely.
• Employment of psychiatrists is expected to grow 7% from 2022 to 2032.

The Benefits of Locum Tenens Physicians in Mitigating the Growing Provider Shortage

Implementing locum tenens physicians into staffing strategies can be vital in bridging gaps in coverage due to increasing physician shortages. A few of the key benefits of locum tenens include:

1. Addressing Staffing Gaps: Locum tenens physicians are instrumental in filling vacancies for healthcare facilities facing clinical staffing shortages. Whether shortages stem from increases in patient volumes, unexpected provider turnover, vacation time, or other factors, locum tenens ensure that hospitals or other healthcare facilities can maintain adequate staffing levels and prevent disruptions to patient care.
2. Mitigating Physician Burnout: Utilizing locum tenens physicians during staffing shortages can help safeguard permanent staff well-being. Locums address weekend and night call coverage needs, bridge scheduling gaps, assist with workload distribution, and enhance overall workplace flexibility. By implementing locum tenens staffing, healthcare employers can better accommodate permanent staff's scheduling preferences, proactively preventing burnout and supporting higher retention rates among full-time physicians.
3. Ensuring Continuity of Patient Care: During clinical staffing shortages or periods of unexpected or significant increases in patient volumes, locum tenens physicians ensure hospitals and healthcare facilities can provide continuous access to care. This continuity of patient care is crucial in maintaining high-quality healthcare services and ensuring that patients receive the treatment they need in a timely manner.
4. Increasing Healthcare Facilities Revenue: With adequate staffing levels and continuous patient care from locum tenens physicians, healthcare facilities can often see a growth in operational efficiency, leading to increased revenue. Plus, locums can expand access to high-value procedures and boost patient services and capacity, resulting in heightened revenue streams.

Partnering With A Trusted Locum Tenens Agency

Partnering with a trusted locum tenens agency like Medicus can simplify the interim staffing process and provide healthcare leaders with the resources needed to bridge critical gaps. Whether through traditional locum tenens staffing or the Medicus Transition Program, designed for specialties with significant FTE gaps in coverage, Medicus delivers high-quality physicians and advanced practitioners who align both clinically and culturally with your facility.

Our dedicated team handles all aspects of locum tenens recruiting, licensing, travel, and credentialing to ensure your facility remains fully staffed, allowing healthcare leaders to focus on their permanent teams and broader staffing goals. No matter the staffing challenges—whether it's increases in patient volumes, organizational staffing changes, or provider turnover—Medicus offers a reliable and accountable partnership, managing locum tenens scheduling and ensuring healthcare leaders can navigate staffing challenges with confidence.

If you are in need of high-quality locum tenens staffing support, please complete the short form below.